[Trade Signal] – Dow is still a darling ahead of FOMC

Dow Futures (YM is still a darling ahead of FOMC statement later today.


What has me shaking my head (in a good way) is the almost uniform predictable pattern that is developing and has been developing for several months. The Dow saw an amazing move up which provided an entry L14,800 if you have been following these entries.

We are now back to another nexus point where it is time to assess. The way I do my analysis I don’t think it really matters which way price goes as long as it does something and its going to happen here.

Price is going to do one 3 things.

  • Up and longs for a break out of the long-term channel. As I’m typing this price is 15,670 and making new highs.
  • Down and shorts for the continued development of the channel and maybe see another push down towards 15,000 level again
  • Bit of both – often we can see price wobble around these decision points trying to push higher or move lower with no real conviction before finally pushing in one direction.

It sounds simple and it should be. This is as complicated as I’m going to make it. Up and I’ll continue to look for longs. Down and I’ll start looking for shorts. And I’ll do my best to stay out of the wibble wobble should that occur.

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  1. Post news its looking like down might be the next direction to contend with and the continued development of the v-large rising channel which can be clearly seen on the daily chart.

    I suspect tomorrow we will have a clearer picture of what will follow

  2. Ino Taormina says:

    Phil would be able to explain the EMAs your using are they a trend filter ? Thanks.

    • Hi Ino – They are not EMA’s. They are used as a part of the strategy outlined here to highlight the trading opportunities that we find in our live trading room.


  1. […] slight consolidation. Based off the larger pattern and a potential move lower towards 14,600 level (see previous analysis) this pattern can be used to try and position ahead of a potential new short trend. As I’m […]